Friday, November 30, 2007

Kenyans, Its Not the Goodies! Its Another Painful 20 Years of Kikuyu Rule! Stupid!

Fellow Kenyans, the crucial question that each one of you needs to ask himself/herself before you cast your vote is: Are you ready to be ruled by Kikuyus for another 20 years?

President Kenyatta ruled from 1963 to 1978. President Kibaki has ruled from 2002 to 2007. Giving him another term is giving his successor,Uhuru Kenyatta, 10 years! If you are not aware of this please wake up!!!!!

There is no one in Kenya with the resources to beat Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2012 elections!!! No one!! Former president Moi made a secret pact with Kenyatta to support Uhuru Kenyatta to ascend to the presidency!!! Moi is not interested in the welfare of the Kalenjin community. He is honoring his promise to the late Kenyatta!! He is protecting his own massive wealth!! Wake up Kenyans!!!

Dont look at the new districts and divisions that you are being given by President Kibaki. Dont look at the maize, sugarcane,tea, coffee etc money money that you are being given. Dont look at the institutions that you are being bribed with!!!!! Look at the 20 YEARS OF KIKUYU RULE that you are going to endure!!!!!!

Amkeni wakenya jamani!!!!

Monday, November 26, 2007

Pinto, the master strategist among Kenya’s radicals!

Publication Date: 11/26/2007

In this third part of the series, HILLARY NG'WENO continues his examination of the men, women, events and political forces that have shaped Kenya.

One noticeable aspect of the lead-up to the December 27 General Election is the seeming absence of any major ideological differences between the contending candidates or their parties. The key issue is ethnicity.

In any particular political debate in Kenya today, one can easily guess a protagonist’s stance merely by taking note of his or her ethnic origin.

It has not always been like that. There was a time when ideology mattered. At independence there was a conservative camp amongst Kenyan leaders, a camp associated with the county’s first President, Jomo Kenyatta and the ruling Kenya African National Union’s first secretary general Tom Mboya, and there was a radical camp associated with Oginga Odinga, Kenya’s first vice president, and a number of Kenyatta’s former colleagues in pre-independence political detention under British colonial rule - among them Achieng Oneko, Bildad Kaggia and Fred Kubai. The story of Kenya’s politics during the first five or six years of independence is the story of the bitter fight to the death between the two ideologies and the subsequent emergence of a dominant new camp that has held sway in the country’s life ever since.

In every war, there are strategists. They are usually backroom men or women, faceless, often nameless, but indispensable for the proper conduct of any war. If in the conservative camp, one was never quite sure who the true master strategist was, Kenyatta or Mboya, there was no doubt that the real brains amongst the radicals was Pio Gama Pinto, one of three Kenyans of Goan descent who were so intimately involved with Kenya’s freedom struggle. The second was Fitz de Souza, who together with the late Achhroo Kapila, were the only Kenyans in the team of lawyers who defended Kenyatta and his colleagues at the Kapenguria trial. The third was Mr Joseph Murumbi, Kenya’s first Minister for Foreign Affairs and the country’s second Vice President.

Born in 1927 of Goan parents in Nairobi, Pinto was educated in India where he had an early taste of politics in the Goan National Congress then locked in a bitter struggle for Goa’s independence from Portuguese rule. He was only 19 when he returned to Kenya in 1946 and threw himself into local politics, making friends with Kenya African Union leaders, especially radical ones like Kaggia and Kubai. Through Kubai and Pinto he would acquire a lasting interest in trade union affairs.

But it is as a freedom fighter that Pinto is remembered most. An accomplished journalist and propagandist, Pinto put his enormous energies to publicizing the cause of African freedom through strident anti-government political pamphlets and press articles, including letters to the East African Standard. When in 1952 colonial government declared a state of emergency and detained most African leaders, including Kenyatta, Pinto went into more active duty on behalf of the freedom struggle. He helped set up a Mau Mau War Council city headquarters in the Mathare area of Nairobi and arranged for the supply of money and a cache of arms to hundreds of youths the council had recruited into the movement to fight in the Nyandarua forest.

In 1954, the British authorities arrested and deported him to Manda Island where he was the only Indian amongst several African deportees. In 1958 he was moved from Manda and subjected to a further year of restriction at Kabarnet in the Rift Valley Province.

Nationalist struggle

On being freed in August 1959, Pinto flung himself back into politics, joining hands with a number of Indian politicians to form the Kenya Freedom Party whose main purpose was to marshal the support of the Indian community for the African nationalist struggle. He would later join Kanu and go on to become manager of the party’s organ, Sauti ya Kanu.

When the paper was expanded and renamed PanAfrica, he became its editor in chief. Through PanAfrica Pinto propagated his increasingly socialist views, that were close to those of his major radical colleagues in Kanu – Odinga, Kaggia, Kubai and Murumbi. In 1963 this radical Kanu leadership helped to get him elected as one of Kenya’s representatives in the Central Legislative Assembly of the East African Common Services Organisation that grouped Kenya, Uganda and Tanganyika. In July the following year, Pinto entered Kenya’s Parliament as a Specially Elected Member. He was 37. Mboya was three years younger.

For the next six months Pinto and Mboya would lock horns at many twists and turns, albeit behind the scenes. In 1964 Pinto joined Dennis Akumu and other disgruntled former Mboya allies in the trade union movement to set up the Kenya African Workers Congress (KAWC) to challenge Mboya’s American financed Kenya Federation of Labour.

Late that year, Pinto would help raise money from the Soviet Union and help set up the Lumumba Institute. It was launched in December 1964 with the aim of training Kanu cadres in organisational and ideological skills. It was meant to counter Mboya’s East African Institute of Social and Cultural Affairs which had been set up with American financing only a few months earlier.

Conservatives and radicals

The Lumumba Institute board of management was made up of Kanu’s leading radicals. Kaggia was chairman. Serving on the board with Kaggia were Pinto, Oneko, Kubai, Murumbi and Paul Ngei. On the institute’s staff were two Russian lecturers. The scene was set for a major battle between Kanu conservatives and radicals for the hearts and souls of Kenyans. The battle never did take place

Within weeks of the Lumumba Institute opening its doors to its first intake of Kanu cadres, Kenyatta and his close conservative associates were shocked to learn that what was being taught was scientific socialism, or in plain words, communism. In Parliament voices were raised against the Institute and against Kanu radicals. By January 1965 a number of Odinga’s allies were getting reports that they were under close surveillance from the Special Branch or intelligence arm of the police. Close friends of Pinto told him that his life was in danger and advised him to lie low or even leave the country altogether for a while. Murumbi, Kenyatta’s Foreign Minister, suggested to Pinto that he could even go to Mozambique and help in Frelimo’s freedom struggle there against the Portuguese colonial rulers.

Pinto did leave Nairobi to spend some time in Mombasa in the hope that things would be fine by the time he came back home. He returned to the city on February 23rd. The following morning, he was shot dead by a gunman as he drove out of his driveway at his Westlands home.

All the Kanu radicals, led by Odinga, were at Pinto’s funeral. They eulogised him as a fallen hero who stood for the rights of Kenya’s poor and freedom fighters. It would not be long before the magnitude of their loss became apparent. For, Pinto’s death marked the beginning of the collapse of Kenya’s radical political left. Thereafter, without a master strategist to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of the conservative adversaries, and to study the political terrain and map out when, how and where to engage the enemy in battle, Odinga and his friends soon began to make tactical blunders. By the end of 1966, they had been outmanoeuvred and outgunned by the conservatives.


How I would rig the vote, were I a top Kibaki man!

Published on November 26, 2007, 12:00 am

By Dominic Odipo

When you travel around the country, you get a pretty good impression of how the people in the different towns and provinces are likely to vote in the coming presidential elections.

If you go to Nyeri you will notice that the people there are not likely to vote for the ODM presidential candidate, Mr Raila Odinga.

If you go to Kericho or Kapsabet, you will get the impression that the people there are not likely to vote for President Kibaki.

This feeling, this ‘message from the soil’, is very different from the message the Steadman Group is trying to convey through its latest opinion polls.

My take, which I believe many hard-nosed political cognoscenti share, is that, if free and fair elections were held tomorrow, Raila would get about 55 per cent of the vote, beating both President Kibaki and the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka.

Yet there is a crucial difference between Raila being able to win and his moving into State House on December 29. And that difference can be reduced to just five words: The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK).

Make no mistake. This election could be decided by the ECK, not necessarily by the people. The Raila onslaught could be broken by the logistical mechanics that ECK puts in motion on election day.

Perhaps this point is best captured by turning it into a question: If I were a top official in the Kibaki Government determined to rig him back into office come what may, how would I proceed? I would move very deliberately but very ruthlessly along the following lines.

First, I would convince the President to appoint as many commissioners as possible to the ECK who are sympathetic to our cause and can do our bidding on or before election day.

I would then get these commissioners to appoint returning and presiding officers who, in turn, can do as we say.

Second, I would prevail upon the President to renew the term of the long-serving ECK Chairman, Mr Samuel Kivuitu, for both diplomatic and tactical reasons.

After all, a lone chairman would be virtually powerless against all the other commissioners who would be working for our side.

Third, I would prevail upon the chairman to put some of our most trusted commissioners in charge of the printing and packaging of the ballot papers. These commissioners would then be sent to Britain, or wherever the ballot papers were being printed, with one very clear instruction: Make sure that the ballot papers destined for Opposition strongholds like Rift Valley and Western provinces have as many errors on them as possible.

The idea here would be to have as many Opposition votes as possible declared spoilt.

Fourth, I would prevail upon the chairman to put one of the commissioners most sympathetic to our cause in charge of all the transport logistics of election day. This man or woman would be given the final say over how, when and where the ballot papers, election materials and personnel would be transported.

I would then instruct them to make sure that, on election day, everything goes real slow in the Opposition strongholds and real fast in Kibaki’s strongholds. Returning and presiding officers would be secretly instructed to ensure that no voting starts in the Opposition strongholds before 1pm on election day.

Fifth, I would secretly designate one of our most trusted commissioners as the commissioner for propaganda and confusion. His main task would be to ensure that there is as much confusion as possible in the Opposition zones on election day.

For example, the ballot papers for Belgut constituency would deliberately be flown to Mandera in the morning of election day. The returning officer in Mandera would then be instructed to ‘go slow’ while awaiting further instructions. The papers would finally be flown to Belgut at 2pm.

Sixth, I would ensure that all polling stations in the whole country were closed at 5pm, regardless of when voting started nor how many people were still queueing to vote. This instruction would be more strictly enforced in the Opposition areas.

Finally, I would get a friendly opinion polling group to keep spewing out figures indicating that the election was too close to call. That would create the appropriate pyschological atmosphere within which to operate.

In one word, this election is not yet in the bag for the Opposition. The latent power of incumbency and the totalitarian powers of a sympathetic ECK could yet do Raila in.

The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi
Source: http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143977995

Friday, November 23, 2007

How are African people being affected by Chinese investments in African nations in exchange for mineral and mining rights?

African Bishops Arthur Kulah (from left), John Innis, Benjamin Boni and Joseph Humper confer during a break at the November meeting of the Holistic Strategy on Africa task force. UMNS photos by Linda Green.

By Linda Green*
Nov. 21, 2007 | LAKE JUNALUSKA, N.C. (UMNS)

How are African people being affected by Chinese investments in African nations in exchange for mineral and mining rights?

The question was explored by a coalition of African and U.S. church leaders seeking to strengthen United Methodist ministries in Africa. The Holistic Strategy on Africa task force met Nov. 3-4 in North Carolina prior to the worldwide United Methodist Council of Bishops meeting.

Bishop Fama Onema, a retired bishop from the Democratic Republic of Congo, reported on China's $5 billion loan to his country under an agreement signed in September. According to Asia Economy Watch, the loan will pay for enhancements to the Congo's extraction infrastructure and give China access rights to extract significant natural resources.

In their conversations about eradicating poverty in Africa, the African bishops noted that China has made similar investment deals across the continent. The bishops expressed concern about the costs to the people of Africa.

"Africa is not a poor continent," said West Angolan Bishop Gaspar Domingos. "Many people come to the continent to look for riches to obtain. They take resources back to their countries and then bring them back to Africa to buy," he said, reporting that Africa is purchasing more Chinese-made goods that are industrially manufactured.

"Education is the No. 1 key for the fight against poverty in training engineers and people who can be responsible for the wealth of the continent," Onema said.

Bishop Benjamin Boni noted that, during the civil war in the Ivory Coast that ended five years ago, the region was exploited for gold, diamonds and other minerals. "How can we explain that?" he asked. "It is a very serious problem."

China's muscle
Analysts say China's financial muscle is providing an economic alternative to African leaders, since traditional partners like European nations and the United States are consumed by their own economic and social issues. China also has cancelled debts owed by some African nations.

Bishop Felton May, who chairs the task force, questions the motivation behind China's recent investments in Africa.

"I am unclear about the motivation of China and the way in which they are now appearing on the scene and interacting with several of the countries that are related to (The United Methodist Church) and our work," said Bishop Felton May, task force chairman and interim top executive of the United Methodist Board of Global Ministries.

Zimbabwe, he said, has experienced an influx of Chinese people over the past seven years. The number of Chinese people in the restaurant and hotel industry has increased significantly, and a large number work in Zimbabwean mines while many in Zimbabwe remain unemployed. "My question is why?" May asked.

May wondered if Zimbabwe felt abandoned by the West, namely Great Britain and the United States.

"I would like to know whether the U.S. State Department has clear and unmistakable knowledge of what China is doing in Zimbabwe and what the proposed outcome would be in terms of the growing presence," he said.

May noted that the United States has invested in Zimbabwe in various ways over the years and that USAID, a government agency providing U.S. economic, developmental and humanitarian aid worldwide, has invested in United Methodist-related Africa University. "For that we are grateful," he said.

But in terms of trade, he said, it is "problematic" that Chinese workers are perhaps displacing Zimbabweans in certain jobs and that textiles and other products previously made in Zimbabwe are being manufactured in China and glutting the market.

"The price for these items has forced Zimbabweans to ask for little or nothing for what they are doing. For me that is a problem," May said.

U.S. debt to China
Another concern cited is the U.S. debt to China. The United States has borrowed money unilaterally or through secondary banking systems from China to shore up deficits.

"Is there a relationship to the indebted of the United States to China and China's encroachment on the social and political scene of Zimbabwe and other subSaharan African countries?," May asked.

"Should China do something that we are not pleased with, are we able to morally and ethically speak to them about what they are doing or will be silenced by our financial relationship to them?"

May expressed hope that the U.S. State Department would give The United Methodist Church or any faith-based organization in Africa an assessment of the U.S. relationship to China and the effect of China's presence on the economic future of Africa.

"As we are concerned about the economic future, we want to know if our investments will be to naught or will they help people come out of poverty," May said. "We certainly do not want China to come in and possibly move toward domination of these countries economically and socially."

"Should China do something that we are not pleased with, are we able to morally and ethically speak to them about what they are doing or will be silenced by our financial relationship to them?"
– Bishop Felton May The African bishops said if money generated from the sale of African products were being mined and invested in the countries where the mines are, the residuals would help to fight poverty.

"Poverty is something we can't understand in a country that has everything," said Bishop David Yemba of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

May expressed a desire that the U.S. government or a research department at a United Methodist-related university would provide a clear picture of what is happening socially, economically and medically in African countries where China has invested.

"We have underutilized the tremendous academic strength of our institutions of higher education," said May.

The Holistic Africa task force provides the African bishops with an arena to share hurts, dreams and aspirations for their respective areas and allows churchwide agencies to share programs, projects and initiatives that can benefit Africans and the church in Africa. The task force also provides an arena to identify common issues that affect the way the African bishops do mission and ministry.

Bishop Felton May, who chairs the task force, questions the motivation behind China's recent investments in Africa.

*Green is a United Methodist News Service news writer based in Nashville, Tenn.

News media contact: Linda Green, (615) 742-5470 or newsdesk@umcom.org.




Elected Members
MP Name Party Constituency
1 Abdikadir, Hussein SAFINA Mandera Central
2 Abuchiaba, Ali Mohammed PNU Lamu East
3 Aluoch, Olago John ODM Kisumi Town West
4 Anyango, Pollyins Ochieng ODM Nyakach
5 Baiya, Peter Njoroge SAFINA Githunguri
6 Balala, Najib Mohamed ODM Mvita
7 Bayah, Francis S.K. KADU ASILI Ganze
8 Chepchumba Peris ODM Eldoret South
9 Chepkitony, Lucas Kipkosgey ODM Keiyo North
10 Cheuriyot, Zakayo Kipkemoi ODM Kuresoi
11 Chikati, John Murumba ODM Kimilili
12 Farah, Maalim ODM Lagdera
13 Gaichuhie, Nelson Ributhi PNU Subukia
14 Gitau, Peter Njuguna PNU Mwea
15 Githunguri, Stanley Munga KANU Kiambaa
16 Godhana, Gaddae ODM Galole
17 Gumbo, Nicholas ODM Rarieda
18 Itole, Wilson Mwotiny ODM Sigor
19 Jeffah, Amason Kingi ODM Magarini
20 Jepkemoi, Sambili Hellen UDM Mogotio
21 Joho, Ali Hassan ODM Kisauni
22 Kabando, Wa Kabando SAFINA Mukurweni
23 Kamar, Margaret Jepkoech ODM Eldoret East
24 Kamau, James Maina PNU Kandara
25 Kamau, Jamleck Irungu PNU Kigumo
26 Kapondi, Fred ODM Mt Elgon
27 Kariuki, John Ngata FORD - A Kerugoya Kutus
28 Kathuri, Emilio Mureithi DP Manyatta
29 Kazungu, Samuel Kambi PNU Kaloleni
30 Keya, Manyala ODM Lurambi
31 Khang'ati Alfred ODM Kanduyi
32 Kigen, Luka Kipkorir ODM Rongai
33 Kiilu, Peter ODM - K Makueni
34 Kilonzo, Mutula ODM - K Mbooni
35 Kinyanjui, Lee Maiyani PNU Nakuru Town
36 Kioni, Jeremiah Ngayu PNU Ndaragwa
37 Kipkorir, William ODM Baringo North
38 Kiprono, Langat Magerer ODM Kipkelion
39 Kiptanui, Jackson ODM Keiyo South
40 Kipyegon, Julius Kones ODM Konoin
41 Kirima, Ann Wangari PNU Kinangop
42 Kiuna, Joseph Nganga PNU Molo
43 Kivuti, Lenny Maxwell SAFINA Siakago
44 Koech, David K ODM Mosop
45 Kosgey, Sally Jemngetich ODM Aldai
46 Kutuny, Joshua ODM Cherengani
47 Kyalo, Philip Kaloki (Prof.) ODM - K Kibwezi
48 Laboso, Lorna Chepkemoi ODM Sotik
49 Lagat, Elijah Kiptarbei ODM Emgwen
50 Lankas, Nkoidila Ole ODM Narok South
51 Lessonet, Moses K ODM Eldama Ravine
52 Letimalo, Raphael Lakalei ODM Samburu East
53 Lugano, Charles Lilechi ODM Shinyalu
54 Magwanga, Joseph Oyugi ODM Kasipul Kabondo
55 Mahmoud, Ali ODM Moyale
56 Mahmoud, H Mohamed ODM Mandera West
57 Maina, Ephraim SAFINA Mathira
58 Manyara, Gitobu CCU Imenti Central
59 Mathenge, Murugi Esther PNU Nyeri Town
60 Mbarire, Cecily Mutitu PNU Runyenjes
61 Mbiuki, Japeth M Kereke KANU Nithi
62 Mohamed, Hussein Ali ODM Mandera East
63 Mohammed, Elmi Ibrahim ODM Wajir East
64 Monda, Robert CCM Nyaribari Chache
65 Mudavadi, Musailia ODM Sabatia
66 Munyaka, Victor Kioko ODM - K Machakos Town
67 Muoki, Isaac Mulatya ODM - K Kitui South
68 Mureithi, Erastus Kihara PNU Ol' Kalou
69 Muriuki, Silas Ruteere MAZINGIRA North Imenti
70 Musyimi, Mutava PNU Gachoka
71 Muthama, Johnson Nduya ODM - K Kangundo
72 Muturi, Mwangi SISI Kiharu
73 Mwadeghu, T Ludindi ODM Wundanyi
74 Mwahima, Mashud Mwalimu ODM Likoni
75 Mwaita, Sammy Silas Komen ODM Baringo Central
76 Mwakulegwa, Danson Mwazo ODM Voi
77 Mwangi, Barnabas Muturi C SISI Kiharu
78 Mwatela, Calyst Andrew ODM Mwatate
79 Mwathi, Peter Mungai FORD - P Limuru
80 Mwau, John Harun PICK Kilome
81 Mwaura, David N. Kiburi PPK Lari
82 Namwamba, Ababu Tawfiq Pius ODM Budalangi
83 Nguyai, Lewis Nganga PNU Kabete
84 Nuh, Nassir Abdi ODM - K Bura
85 Nyammo, Francis Thombe PNU Tetu
86 Odhiambo, Bwire ODM Butula
87 Ogindo, Martin Otieno ODM Rangwe
88 Ojwang, Cyprian ODM Uriri
89 Ongoro, Elizabeth ODM Kasarani
90 Onyancha, Charles ODM Bonchari
91 Orengo, James Aggrey ODM Ugenya
92 Otieno, Dalmas ODM Rongo
93 Otuoma, Nyongesa Paul (Dr.) ODM Funyula
94 Outa, Frederick Otieno ODM Nyando
95 Pesa, John Dache ODM Migori
96 Rutto, Isaac ODM Chepalungu
97 Sambu, Alfred Wekesa ODM Webuye
98 Shabir, Shekeel Ahmed ODM Kisumi Town East
99 Swaleh, Swaleh KANU Lamu West
100 Thuo, George PNU Juja
101 Too, David ODM Ainamoi
102 Wamalwa, Eugene Ludovic PNU Saboti
103 Wambugu, Clement Muchiri PNU Mathioya
104 Wanjiru, Margaret (Bishop) ODM Starehe
105 Warugongo, Nemesyus PNU Kieni
106 Wathika, Dickson Mwangi PNU Makadara
107 Were, Melitus ODM Embakasi
108 Wiru, Alex Muthengi PNU Tharaka
109 Yinda, Edwin Ochieng ODM Alego Usonga
110 Zachariah, John Moguche CCU Kitutu Masaba
111 Angwenyi, Jimmy Nuru Ondieki PNU Kitutu Chache
112 Bett, Franklin Kipn'getich ODM Bureti
113 Ethuro, David Ethwee PNU Turkana Central
114 Githae, Njeru Robinson PNU Ndia
115 Gumo, Frederick ODM Westlands
116 Haji, Yusuf KANU Ijara
117 Kajwang', Otieno Gerald ODM Mbita
118 Kamama, Abongotum, Asman PNU Baringo East
119 Karua, Martha Wangari PNU Gichugu
120 Kenneth, Peter PNU Gatanga
121 Kenyatta, Uhuru Muigai KANU Gatundu South
122 Keter, Charles ODM Belgut
123 Khalwale, Bonny (Dr.) NEW FORD-K Ikolomani
124 Kibaki, Mwai Emilio PNU Othaya
125 Kiema, Kilonzo Julius ODM - K Mutito
126 Kilimo, Linah Jebii KENDA Marakwet East
127 Kilonzo, Charles Mutavi ODM - K Yatta
128 Kimunya, Amos Muhinga PNU Kipipiri
129 Kiunjuri, Mwangi Festus PNU Laikipia East
130 Kombe , Harrison Garama SHIRIKISHO Magarini
131 Kosgey, Henry Kiprono ODM Tinderet
132 Kuti, Mohammed Abdi (Dr.) KANU Isiolo North
133 Lekuton, Joseph KANU Laisamis
134 Lesirma, Simon Saimanga ODM Samburu West
135 Machage, Wilfred (Dr.) PNU Kuria
136 Magara, Omingo James ODM South Mugirango
137 Mbau, Elias Peter PNU Maragua
138 Michuki, John Njoroge PNU Kangema
139 Midiwo, Jakoyo Washington ODM Gem
140 Mugo, Beth Wambui PNU Dagoretti
141 Mungatana, Danson PNU Garsen
142 Musila, David ODM - K Mwingi South
143 Musyoka, Kalonzo Stephen ODM - K Mwingi North
144 Mwakwere, Ali Chirau PNU Matuga
145 Ndambuki, Gideon Musyoka ODM - K Kaiti
146 Ngilu, Charity Kaluki Mwendwa NARC Kitui Central
147 Nkaissery, Joseph ODM Kajiado Central
148 Nyong'o, Anyang' Peter (Prof.) ODM Kisumi Rural
149 Odinga, Oburu Ngona ODM Bondo
150 Odinga, Raila Amolo ODM Langata
151 Ojaamongson, Sospeter Odeke ODM Amagoro
152 Okemo, Chrisanthus ODM Nambale
153 Ole Ntimama, William Ronkorua ODM Narok North
154 Oparanya, Wycliffe ODM Butere
155 Phoghisio, Samuel Losuron ODM - K Kachileba
156 Ruto, William K Samoei ODM Eldoret North
157 Sasura, Abdi .T ODM - K Saku
158 Sasura, Hussein Tarrui ODM - K Saku
159 Shaban, Naomi Namsi KANU Taveta
160 Shitanda, Soita Peter NEW FORD-K Malava
161 Wakoli, Bifwoli Sylvester PNU Bumula
162 Wekesa, Noah (Dr.) PNU Kwanza
163 Wetangula, Moses Masika PNU Sirisia

163 Result(s) for elected members

From:Gordon Teti

Guys, this is how the outcome of the forthcoming general election will be:

ODM......118 SEATS

Nairobi Province
* Dagoretti Constituency PNU
* Embakasi Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kamukunji Constituency ODMKENYA
* Kasarani Constituency ODM
* Langata Constituency ODM
* Makadara Constituency ODM
* Starehe Constituency ODM
* Westlands Constituency ODM

Central Province
Nyandarua District:

* Kinangop Constituency PNU
* Kipipiri Constituency PNU
* Ndaragwa Constituency PNU
* Ol Kalou Constituency PNU

Nyeri District:
* Kieni Constituency PNU
* Mathira Constituency PNU
* Mukurweni Constituency PNU
* Nyeri Town Constituency PNU
* Othaya Constituency PNU
* Tetu Constituency PNU

Kirunyaga District:
* Gichugu Constituency PNU
* Kerugoya/Kutus Constituency PNU
* Ndia Constituency PNU
* Mwea Constituency PNU

Maragua District:
* Kandara Constituency PNU
* Kigumo Constituency PNU
* Maragua Constituency PNU

Muranga District:
* Kangema Constituency PNU
* Kiharu Constituency PNU
* Mathioya Constituency PNU

Thika District:
* Gatanga Constituency PNU
* Gatundu South Constituency PNU
* Gatundu North Constituency KANU
* Juja Constituency PNU

Kiambu District:
* Githunguri Constituency PNU
* Kiambaa Constituency PNU
* Kabete Constituency SAFINA
* Limuru Constituency PNU
* Lari Constituency PNU

Coast Province
Kilifi District:
* Bahari Constituency ODM
* Ganze Constituency ODM
* Kaloleni Constituency ODM

Kwale District:
* Kinango Constituency SHIRIKISHO
* Matuga Constituency SHIRIKISHO
* Msambweni Constituency ODM

Lamu District:
* Lamu East Constituency ODM
* Lamu West Constituency ODM

Malindi District:
* Magarini Constituency SHIRIKISHO
* Malindi Constituency ODM KENYA

Mombasa District:
* Changamwe Constituency ODM
* Kisauni Constituency ODM
* Likoni Constituency ODM
* Mvita Constituency ODM

Taita-Taveta District:
* Mwatate Constituency ODM
* Taveta Constituency ODM
* Voi Constituency ODM
* Wundanyi Constituency ODM

Tana River District:
* Bura Constituency ODM
* Galole Constituency ODM
* Garsen Constituency PNU

Eastern Province
Embu District:
* Manyatta Constituency PNU
* Runyenjes Constituency PNU

Isiolo District:
* Isiolo North Constituency ODM
* Isiolo South Constituency ODM

Kitui District:
* Kitui Central Constituency ODM
* Kitui South Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kitui West Constituency ODM KENYA
* Mutito Constituency ODM KENYA

Makueni District:
* Kaiti Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kibwezi Constituency TIP
* Kilome Constituency ODM KENYA
* Makueni Constituency PNU
* Mbooni Constituency PNU

Marsabit District:
* Laisamis Constituency ODM
* North Horr Constituency ODM
* Saku Constituency ODM

Mbeere District:
* Gachoka Constituency ODM
* Siakago Constituency PNU

Meru District:
* Central Imenti Constituency PNU
* North Imenti Constituency PNU
* South Imenti Constituency PNU

Meru North District:
* Igembe Constituency PNU
* Ntonyiri Constituency PNU
* Tigania East Constituency PNU
* Tigania West Constituency PNU

Meru South District:
* Nithi Constituency PNU

Moyale District:
* Moyale Constituency ODM

Mwingi District:
* Mwingi North Constituency ODM KENYA
* Mwingi South Constituency ODM KENYA

Tharaka District:
* Tharaka Constituency PNU

North Eastern Province
Garissa District:

* Dujis Constituency ODM
* Fafi Constituency ODM
* Lagdera Constituency ODM

Ijara District:
* Ijara Constituency KANU

Wajir District:
* Wajir East Constituency ODM
* Wajir North Constituency ODM
* Wajir South Constituency ODM
* Wajir West Constituency ODM

Mandera District:
* Mandera Central Constituency ODM
* Mandera East ConstituencyODM
* Mandera West ConstituencyODM

Nyanza Province
Bondo District:
* Bondo Constituency ODM
* Rarieda Constituency ODM

Gucha District:
* Bobasi Constituency ODM
* Bomachoge Constituency ODM
* South Mugirango Constituency ODM

Homa Bay District:
* Ndhiwa Constituency ODM
* Rangwe Constituency ODM

Kisii District:
* Bonchari Constituency ODM
* Kitutu Chache Constituency ODM
* Nyaribare Chache Constituency PNU
* Nyaribari Masaba Constituency PNU

Kisumu District:
* Kisumu Rural Constituency ODM
* Kisumu Town East Constituency ODM
* Kisumu Town West Constituency ODM

Kuria District:
* Kuria Constituency ODM

Migori District:
* Migori Constituency ODM
* Nyatike Constituency ODM
* Rongo Constituency ODM
* Uriri Constituency ODM

Nyamira District:
* Kitutu Masaba Constituency PNU
* North Mugirango Constituency ODM
* West Mugirango Constituency ODM

Nyando District:
* Muhoroni Constituency ODM
* Nyakach Constituency ODM
* Nyando Constituency ODM

Rachuonyo District
* Karachuonyo Constituency ODM
* Kasipul Kabondodo Constituency ODM

Siaya District:
* Alego Usonga Constituency ODM
* Gem Constituency ODM
* Ugenya Constituency ODM

Suba District:
* Gwassi Constituency ODM
* Mbita Constituency ODM

Rift Valley Province
Baringo District:

* Baringo Central Constituency KANU
* Baringo East Constituency ODM
* Baringo North Constituency ODM

Bomet District:
* Bomet Constituency ODM
* Chepalungu Constituency ODM
* Sotik Constituency ODM

Buret District:
* Bureti Constituency ODM
* Konoin Constituency ODM

Kajiado District:
* Kajiado Central Constituency ODM
* Kajiado North Constituency PNU
* Kajiado South ConstituencyPNU

Keiyo District:
* Keiyo North Constituency ODM
* Keiyo South Constituency KANU

Kericho District:
* Ainamoi Constituency ODM
* Belgut Constituency ODM
* Kipkelion Constituency ODM

Koibatek District:
* Eldama Ravine Constituency ODM
* Mogotio Constituency ODM

Laikipia District
* Laikipia East Constituency PNU
* Laikipia West Constituency PNU

Marakwet District:
* Marakwet East Constituency ODM
* Marakwet West Constituency ODM

Nakuru District:
* Kuresoi Constituency ODM
* Molo Constituency PNU
* Naivasha Constituency PNU
* Nakuru Town Constituency PNU
* Rongai Constituency PNU
* Subukia Constituency PNU

Nandi District:
* Aldai Constituency ODM
* Emgwen Constituency ODM
* Mosop Constituency ODM
* Tinderet Constituency ODM

Narok District
* Narok North Constituency ODM
* Narok South Constituency ODM

Samburu District
* Samburu East Constituency ODM
* Samburu West Constituency ODM

Trans Mara District
* Kilgoris Constituency ODM

Trans-Nzoia District
* Cherangani Constituency PNU
* Kwanza Constituency PNU
* Saboti Constituency PNU

Turkana District:
* Turkana Central Constituency PNU
* Turkana North Constituency KANU
* Turkana South Constituency ODM

Uasin Gishu District:
* Eldoret East Constituency ODM
* Eldoret North Constituency ODM
* Eldoret South ConstituencyODM

West Pokot District
* Kacheliba Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kapenguria Constituency ODM
* Sigor Constituency ODM

Western Province
Bungoma District:
* Bumula Constituency PNU
* Kanduyi Constituency PNU
* Kimilili Constituency NEW FORDKENYA
* Sirisia Constituency ODM
* Webuye Constituency PNU

Busia District:
* Budalangi Constituency PNU or ODM
* Butula Constituency ODM
* Funyula Constituency ODM
* Nambale Constituency ODM

Butere/Mumias District
* Butere Constituency ODM
* Khwisero Constituency ODM
* Matungu ConstituencyODM
* Mumias Constituency ODM

Kakamega District:
* Malava Constituency ODM
* Lurambi Constituency PNU
* Shinyalu Constituency ODM
* Ikolomani Constituency NEW FORDKENYA

Lugari District:
* Lugari Constituency ODM

Mount Elgon District:
* Mt Elgon Constituency ODM

Teso District
* Amagoro Constituency ODM
* Emuhaya Constituency ODM
* Hamisi Constituency ODM
* Sabatia ConstituencyODM
* Vihiga Constituency ODM

Source: http://www.jaluo.com/wangwach/200710/Gordon_Teti101607.html

Topic: Bunge-only projections: Tight ODM win or Coalition (Read 158 times)
Full Member

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Karma: -1 Bunge-only projections: Tight ODM win or Coalition
« Thread Started on Nov 20, 2007, 7:34pm »

Bunge Projection: Tight ODM win OR Coalition with Kalonzo/Muite/Others:

I spent most of yesterday evening and early morning cross checking the "preliminary nominations data" we have:

A few observations:
1) ODM the party has stood the most candidates (195+), is the most popular, and hence the raw passions for the certificates.
2) PNU the party has stood the 2nd most candidates (110+) and is the 2nd most popular, hence too the raw passions for the certificates.
3) ODM seems to have covered all geographical areas ... NEP, Coast, NBO, Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Eastern BUT NOT Central that much.
4) PNU covered a few areas very well like Central, Eastern, NBO, Rift Valley and Coast Province and low coverage in Western, Nyanza and NEP.
5) PNU has been dealt a serious unity-blow by affiliate parties like Safina, DP, Narc-K, TIP. Ford-P, Shirikisho, etc
6) In terms of available seats - NorthEastProv-11, Nairobi-8, RiftValley-49, Central-29, Nyanza-32, Eastern-35, Western-25, Coast-21
7) Bunge seats are 230 seats of which 210 are elective and 20 are nominated MP's. For majority in Bunge, one needs 210/2=105+1 which is 106.

On my projections sheet I have the following (as a conservative-estimate):
Nairobi - ODM (3), PNU (3), DP (1), Safina (1)
Coast - ODM (14), ODM-K (2), PNU (3), Shirikisho (2)
NEP - ODM (7), ODMK (1), PNU (1), KANU (2)
Eastern - ODM-K (17), PNU (12), ODM (5-north upper), NARC (1)
Central - PNU (19), KANU (5), Safina (3), DP (2)
Rift Valley - ODM (34), KANU (6), PNU (6), ODMK (2) New KANU (1),
Western - ODM (20), PNU (4), NewFordK(1)
Nyanza - ODM (24), FordP (8)

With the above, the Bunge projections comes to:
ODM - 3+14+7+5+33+20+24 = 107
PNU - 3+3+1+12+19+6+4 =48
ODMK - 2+1+17+2 =22
KANU - 2+5+6 = 13
FordP -=8
Safina- 1+3=4
DP - 1+2=3
Shirkisho-= 2
NewKanu- =1

Which means the following:
a) If Raira wins, ODM has coalition Govt with Narc, ODMK, Ford-P have absolute parliamentary majorioty ... and may entice Safina, DP, etc
b) If Kibaki wins, PNU has minority Coalition Govt with other parties OR ... get this ... PNU coalition with ODM with absolute Parliamentary Majority
c) If PNU does not win the seats as projected, expect to see SMALL parties, ODM-Kalonzo and Safina-Muite reap handsomely from the next govt.
d) This election has seen the SAD DEATH of Ford-People, Ford-Kenya, Shirikisho, KANU and Narc-Kenya as powerful parliamentary parties.

Unless a blunder of monumental proportions occurs between now and election date (37 days), ODM may be the strongest/largest party.

Please note that this is a conservative and preliminary estimate and will obviously change once we have the finalized data published by ECK.

Source: http://jukwaa.proboards58.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1195576469

Monday, November 19, 2007


NAGPS President-Tonia Compton

NAGPS Vice President, Ruqaiyah Rogers (Center) with the Midwest Region Student leaders.

Ruqaiyah Rogers-Vice President- NAGPS.


The 21st Annual Conference of the National Association of Graduate & Professional Students (NAGPS) was opened by Liz Olson, outgoing CEO and President of NAGPS. She welcomed the representatives from the various institutions of higher learning to Austin-Texas and assured them that they would find the conference enriching to their leadership experience.

The theme of the conference was “Advocate, Empower, and Connect: Creating Stronger Graduate and Professional Student Communities”. The theme reflected the renovated mission of the Organization.

On Friday 16th November 2007, the keynote speaker Dr.Raymund Paredes, Texas Commissioner of Higher Education brought home a very touching and challenging real-world understanding of the value of higher education. According to him, the relationship between research and policy is still a nightmare for many faculty members. This needs to change. Faculty need to be empowered on how to convert research into good policy.

According to Dr. Paredes, American society ought to take seriously the fact that only 55% of the students who enroll for graduate education end up completing their studies; compared to other countries, the US ranks 8th or 9th for students completing graduate studies. He goes on to say that whatever your field of interest or discipline, one ought to take into account that all of us are citizens of the world regardless of your background or training thus in order to assume a position of intellectual leadership, higher education must not be eroded in any way.

On Saturday 17th November 2007, Scott Jaschik, editor and co-founder of Inside Higher Ed, spoke on the social policy and graduate education. According to him, “hard sciences” are a hot issue in Washington DC. The main reason is that many people are looking for ways to “beat” the Asians-the Japanese, Indians, Chinese, and Koreans, etc., who are seen as a threat and a resource at the same time.

Jaschik stated that politicians and lobbyist groups are discussing ways of regulating the influx of foreign students into the US in search of higher education. One group says “let the Asians in so that our laboratories may run well. Foreign talent is needed”. The other group says,” Keep the Asians out of this country so that our own students may get jobs!” Jaschik goes on to say that many institutions of higher learning are reporting that potential international students are being kept out of the country by unfair visa denials.

Interestingly enough, Germany and many other countries in Europe have seen the need to capitalize on the conflict that the US has on this crucial issue and they are changing their policies to attract more foreign students. They are also pumping more funds into their institutions of higher learning in order to regain their academic superiority. For example, Europe is moving toward 3-year degrees on the undergraduate level. This makes the 4-year American undergraduate degree to look too long and a waste of precious time. Australia is accepting students from Europe who have 3-year degrees. Canada has also become aggressive in recruiting foreign students. For example they have removed many unnecessary admission requirements which are still used in the US. The US is faced with a dilemma. As much as it would like to admit the European students who have the 3-year undergraduate degrees, they hesitate to do this because it would mean having to do the same for the Indian students who have 3-year undergraduate degrees.

On the issue of whether graduate students should unionize or not, Jaschik says it is to their advantage to do so and experience has shown that institutions like the University of Chicago offers better terms/benefits to their graduate students because they are unionized. According to him, top universities view graduate students not just as students but also as instructors. They want the best so they invest considerably in them.

During the small-group sessions time, Erick Wolf from the University of Colorado presented a very elaborate report from a survey that he conducted on student insurance health plans offered by various universities across the country. The survey revealed that, compared to many other institutions, the University of Michigan provides really good health benefits.This is a factor that many believe is making more and more students to make UoM their school of choice since health insurance is a critical need to all people in America. UoM has an MD Program and their Insurance is self-managed.

On the final day of the conference, NAGPS elected new officials for the year 2007-2008. The following were elected:

President - Tonia Compton, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Vice-President - Ruqaiyah Rogers, Grand Valley State University
Chief Information Officer - Katie Vahey, University of Colorado – Boulder
Chief Financial Officer - Amy Meyers, Baylor University
Ombudsman - James Hodgson, University of California –Davis
Midwest Regional Coordinator – vacant
South-Central Regional Coordinator – vacant
Northeast Regional Coordinator – Joe Arasin, Carnegie Mellon University
Western Regional Coordinator – Yvonne Dang, University of Nevada- Reno
Southeast Regional Coordinator – Evan Perlman, University of Maryland
Social Justice Coordinator – Alethea Duncan, Duke University
Employee Concerns Chair – Rachel Hansen, Brigham Young University
Human Concerns Chair – Gauthum Pandiyan, Duke University
Legislative Concerns Chair – Chris Wright, Oklahoma State University
Public Relations Chair, Armen Shaomian, University of Miami

The new leadership of NAGPS now has the challenge of not only strengthening their organization by recruiting more members from all the 12,000+ universities and colleges from all the regions of America but also identifying the critical needs of graduate students and working hard to ensure that those needs are met.

NAGPS leaders need to see that both student happiness on campus and later success in the workplace are critical to the economic and academic future of their educational institutions. Satisfied students and working graduates lead to, among other things, individuals who: feel good about themselves and their alma mater; can service their enormous student debt; generate interest in their academic home among prospective students; and become donors.

The other crucial thing that NAGPS leaders will need is to recognize and incorporate into their thinking other key and relevant stakeholders in graduate studies: parents, communities, the government, employers/the job industry, politicians etc. NAGPS leaders will have to prioritize among the stakeholders by assessing both their relative interest in and influence on (power within) graduate education. Satisfying this triumvirate of interests is not simple and requires that the NAGPS leaders change how they approach their day-to-day activities. It is prudent that NAGPS leaders learn how to think more expansively about stakeholders, and then actively incorporate these stakeholders into the corporate decision-making process.

Meeting with leaders of the various stakeholder groups will be critical and it may hold the key to the progress of NAGPS in many ways. Without this, it is going to be another wasted year for this new leaders!

Many graduate students will be looking upon NAGPS leaders to push for the following:

1. Push for a cooperative effort between government, business leaders and universities to boost the enrollment and retention of graduate students especially the underrepresented minorities in graduate programs.

2. Expand federal programs to foster interdisciplinary research.

3. Compete more effectively for talent abroad.

4. Enhance the quality of American graduate education, including reducing attrition and supporting more risk-taking research.

5. Improving visa processes for international students.

6. Increasing federal funding for graduate programs by at least 10 percent at each institution or agency.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

You needn’t be a tribalist to support federalism-Majimbo!

Published on November 8, 2007, 12:00 am

By Dr.Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem

Last Saturday, at the famous Ufungamano Hall, I (not unexpectedly) walked straight into the brawling ring of Kenya’s ongoing political campaigns.

I was a key-note speaker at a public lecture on ‘The Great Majimbo Debate’ organised by the Young Professionals for Raila. It was obviously a partisan platform, but the matter being discussed was of a public nature in which I had both personal and professional interest.

I had made it clear to my hosts that I was not coming to speak as a UN staffer, but rather as a concerned Pan-Africanist and a political scientist who comments freely on African issues. That caveat was of no use in the ensuing reports.

I do not usually blame the media for ‘misrepresentation’ or ‘misquoting’ but on this occasion my colleagues in the Fourth Estate really undersold themselves. They were more concerned with my UN status and all the reports even managed to get my position and particular UN affiliation wrong.

But this should not deflect us from the political significance of the debate that is wrongly termed majimbo but which for me is about wider issues of political and economic governance, devolution of power and the degree to which people of Kenya should have control over their destiny and the accountability of their leaders to them at various levels. It is a debate that has echoes in many African countries. It is about how to deepen democracy beyond just the right to ritually vote periodically.

In the current charged competition for votes the debate is couched in exclusive terms. On President Kibaki’s side they have succeed in wrong footing the pro-devolution group as majimboists (code word for tribalists) and enemies of the unity of the country. The Opposition has reacted defensively saying they are not clamouring for the old divisive majimbo of the 1960s, rather it is political devolution.

What is clear is that both sides agree on devolution but cannot agree on by how much. The Government thinks the Constituency Development Fund which came under this regime (even though it was from a Private Members Bill instead of from Government or Opposition legislative agenda) is enough. The Opposition thinks it should be extended to regional levels. I think if devolution is so good, why is it being limited to 2.5 per cent?

Whether you call it majimbo or devolution, the consensus means that everyone is not happy with the status quo. This is where my defence of federalism begins.

One, the response to an overbearing centralised state is devolution of power and clamouring for same by the constituent units in that system. They could be districts, provinces, regions or other administrative areas.

Two, in the specific case of Kenya it is clear that the Bomas consensus was to have a very weak form of federalism/devolution which shares powers and resources between the constituent units on a more equitable way but retaining substantial and most importantly the power to levy taxes, at the centre.

It will be very much different from the Nigerian federalism which is centre-centric (all mineral resources are controlled by the centre) but every state (and even local governments) can levy and collect taxes as they deem fit and permissible under the constitution. They can also make laws on non-exclusive legislative areas. However, if there is a clash with federal law the federal law will prevail.

The Kenyan model also differs from the Ethiopian federalism which is based on ethnic nationalities and guarantees ‘the right to self determination including secession’.

It appears that what the political class agreed in Bomas was a more generic association with the South African halfway house between federalism and unitarism. And even that may seem too much for sections of this class as evident from the inability to implement it and the emotional debates around it.

The political scoring games between politicians are preventing a serious discussion but whoever wins the election cannot defer the matter any longer. Unfortunately the Government side seem to be scaring Kenyans with a break-up of the country if federalism is accepted and the Opposition side is too fearful of losing support to put up a principled case for a devolved federalism with Kenyan compromises (even scared of using the word). Both sides are surcharging the public.

While there may be many challenges with establishing a federal system, including the threats of narrow nationalism, regionalism or statism, the solution is not to continue to defend the unsatisfactory status quo but to agree on rights of all Kenyans wherever they may be and the full commitment to the rule of law to defend them.

The opportunities of a federal system are just too many for fear to intimidate supporters from articulating it. One, it offers greater opportunities for wider political recruitment of leadership instead of the current situation of being limited to national Cabinet level.

For instance you may not have heard of Yar Adua in Nairobi but he did not come from inside Obasanjo’ hat of dirty tricks because he had been Governor of one of Nigeria’s 36 states for two terms.

Two, marginalised peoples or regions, youth, women and others have wider opportunity for accessing leadership position through the state/regional levels and graduating to national level. A situation in which 60-year-old Kenyans are being asked ‘to wait for their turn’ or regarded as ‘Young Turks’ only demonstrate the limited space available at the top.

Three, gone are the days when it was wrongly assumed that in order to be a nationalist you have to deny being part of a particular community. That strategy has generally not worked instead it produced all kinds of ethnic, regional and religious manipulation in the name of nation-building.

The problem is not in our diversities but the denial of those differences and the politics of exclusion required for enforcing those regime of denials.

The writer is the deputy director of the UN Millennium Campaign in Africa

Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem, the Peace and Security Programme Director, has spear-headed Justice Africa’s engagement with the African Union since its founding in 2002; positioning Justice Africa as a incisive civil society voice within that body and its constituent organs, as well as acting as a forum and conduit between civil society and the African Union generally. As a Pan-African representative body committed to development and democracy, we also engage with the African Union to support its purpose and to ensure its further success. As well as his work with the AU, Tajudeen has maintained his role as General Secretary of the Pan-African Movement; Chairman of the Centre for Democracy and Development, based in Abuja and Lagos; and of the Pan-African Development Education and Advocacy Programme (PADEAP) based in Kampala and Abuja. In addition to this, Tajudeen continues to produce the weekly Thursday Postcard, a column on African issues that is accessed by millions in Africa and globally, and that is carried in Newsday (Nigeria), The New Vision (Uganda) and on Pambazuka News. Tajudeen will be spending 2006/07 based in Nairobi, acting as Deputy Director (Africa) for the United Nations Millennium Campaign; ensuring that civil society voices continue to be heard in the global effort against poverty and injustice.


Monday, November 05, 2007

‘Kibaki Tena’ no match for the idea we need change!

Published on November 5, 2007, 12:00 am

By Dominic Odipo

Who is President Kibaki’s most serious opponent in the battle for the presidency this year? Is it ODM’s Mr Raila Odinga or ODM-Kenya’s Mr Kalonzo Musyoka?

To get the answer we really need here, this question needs to put slightly differently: What is the most serious obstacle standing between President Kibaki and a second presidential term?

Put this way, the answer becomes not only clearer but much more helpful.

The most serious obstacle standing between Kibaki and a second term is neither Raila nor Kalonzo. It is an idea, a feeling, an ‘ill wind’ blowing through thousands of villages and towns all across the land. It is the idea that the political status quo needs to be changed.

It is the feeling that the real dream and promise of the Narc rebellion of 2002 has not only gone unfulfilled but has actually been abandoned.

It is the feeling that a horrendous mistake was made in the run-up to the 2002 General Election, which now needs to be corrected.

No army, no weapon of mass destruction and no international boundary can stand before an idea whose time has come. The President’s people need to recognise that if their man loses the presidential election, he will have been beaten, not by an individual but by an infectious idea whose time appears to have arrived.

The once almighty British Empire of the 19th and 20th centuries was not destroyed by Germany’s Adolf Hitler but mainly by the basic idea that colonialism and imperialism were out and self-determination for all the peoples of the world was in.

The moment this idea found expression in the policies and actions of US President Franklin D Roosevelt and other like-minded people in positions of power, colonialism was dead and the British Empire was fast on its way to extinction.

In the 1980s, we all watched with awe and wonder as a set of new ideas marched across Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union sweeping away government after government and establishing a totally new world order.

No government or army in the region could stand up against the idea that communism was basically incompatible with human nature and that the human spirit was greater and stronger than any government anywhere.

The ideological forces unleashed jointly by then US President Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II destroyed the entire political architecture of Eastern Europe and changed the course of European and world history.

The weapons required to fight an idea are very different from those required to fight an individual. Just like we do not fight highland malaria with guns or pangas, we do not fight ideas by unleashing our gunfire on individuals.

Both Reagan and Pope John Paul II have since passed on but the ideas they epitomised, preached and proliferated could live on for a thousand years.

One of the greatest enemies of the conventional wisdom is the force of naked facts. If the ideas that we hold are directly challenged by the facts before our own eyes, we tend to abandon those ideas and embrace those that match the facts around us.

Where the facts do not so obviously contradict the ideas that we hold, the only way to fight an idea is to unleash a bigger, better and more alluring idea against which the old one will recoil and retreat.

So far as we know, there is no other weapon available for fighting a powerful idea.

If you do not understand who or what your real enemy is, you are likely to come up with the wrong remedy or the wrong weapon.

A close look at the Kibaki re-election campaign leaves little doubt that some very big guns in there have not really understood what they are up against.

If they had understood what they are really up against, they would not have structured their campaign around a slogan like "Kibaki Tena".

In this context, to shout "Kibaki Tena" from the rooftops or the tail end of an aircraft is akin to standing at the barricades and stubbornly trying to hold back an idea marching across the landscape.

It is as ingenious and as futile as if the Eastern European leaders had fought back against the new ideas of the 1980s with the slogan: "Communism Again". It simply would not have worked against the promise of freedom.

Can the President’s entire campaign focus and strategy be overhauled within the remaining 50 days?

My take is that it is very unlikely. Which means that, almost certainly, the President will be out of State House by the end of the year.

The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi