2007 KENYA GENERAL ELECTION RESULT PROJECTIONS!

2007 KENYA GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS:

Elected Members
MP Name Party Constituency
1 Abdikadir, Hussein SAFINA Mandera Central
2 Abuchiaba, Ali Mohammed PNU Lamu East
3 Aluoch, Olago John ODM Kisumi Town West
4 Anyango, Pollyins Ochieng ODM Nyakach
5 Baiya, Peter Njoroge SAFINA Githunguri
6 Balala, Najib Mohamed ODM Mvita
7 Bayah, Francis S.K. KADU ASILI Ganze
8 Chepchumba Peris ODM Eldoret South
9 Chepkitony, Lucas Kipkosgey ODM Keiyo North
10 Cheuriyot, Zakayo Kipkemoi ODM Kuresoi
11 Chikati, John Murumba ODM Kimilili
12 Farah, Maalim ODM Lagdera
13 Gaichuhie, Nelson Ributhi PNU Subukia
14 Gitau, Peter Njuguna PNU Mwea
15 Githunguri, Stanley Munga KANU Kiambaa
16 Godhana, Gaddae ODM Galole
17 Gumbo, Nicholas ODM Rarieda
18 Itole, Wilson Mwotiny ODM Sigor
19 Jeffah, Amason Kingi ODM Magarini
20 Jepkemoi, Sambili Hellen UDM Mogotio
21 Joho, Ali Hassan ODM Kisauni
22 Kabando, Wa Kabando SAFINA Mukurweni
23 Kamar, Margaret Jepkoech ODM Eldoret East
24 Kamau, James Maina PNU Kandara
25 Kamau, Jamleck Irungu PNU Kigumo
26 Kapondi, Fred ODM Mt Elgon
27 Kariuki, John Ngata FORD - A Kerugoya Kutus
28 Kathuri, Emilio Mureithi DP Manyatta
29 Kazungu, Samuel Kambi PNU Kaloleni
30 Keya, Manyala ODM Lurambi
31 Khang'ati Alfred ODM Kanduyi
32 Kigen, Luka Kipkorir ODM Rongai
33 Kiilu, Peter ODM - K Makueni
34 Kilonzo, Mutula ODM - K Mbooni
35 Kinyanjui, Lee Maiyani PNU Nakuru Town
36 Kioni, Jeremiah Ngayu PNU Ndaragwa
37 Kipkorir, William ODM Baringo North
38 Kiprono, Langat Magerer ODM Kipkelion
39 Kiptanui, Jackson ODM Keiyo South
40 Kipyegon, Julius Kones ODM Konoin
41 Kirima, Ann Wangari PNU Kinangop
42 Kiuna, Joseph Nganga PNU Molo
43 Kivuti, Lenny Maxwell SAFINA Siakago
44 Koech, David K ODM Mosop
45 Kosgey, Sally Jemngetich ODM Aldai
46 Kutuny, Joshua ODM Cherengani
47 Kyalo, Philip Kaloki (Prof.) ODM - K Kibwezi
48 Laboso, Lorna Chepkemoi ODM Sotik
49 Lagat, Elijah Kiptarbei ODM Emgwen
50 Lankas, Nkoidila Ole ODM Narok South
51 Lessonet, Moses K ODM Eldama Ravine
52 Letimalo, Raphael Lakalei ODM Samburu East
53 Lugano, Charles Lilechi ODM Shinyalu
54 Magwanga, Joseph Oyugi ODM Kasipul Kabondo
55 Mahmoud, Ali ODM Moyale
56 Mahmoud, H Mohamed ODM Mandera West
57 Maina, Ephraim SAFINA Mathira
58 Manyara, Gitobu CCU Imenti Central
59 Mathenge, Murugi Esther PNU Nyeri Town
60 Mbarire, Cecily Mutitu PNU Runyenjes
61 Mbiuki, Japeth M Kereke KANU Nithi
62 Mohamed, Hussein Ali ODM Mandera East
63 Mohammed, Elmi Ibrahim ODM Wajir East
64 Monda, Robert CCM Nyaribari Chache
65 Mudavadi, Musailia ODM Sabatia
66 Munyaka, Victor Kioko ODM - K Machakos Town
67 Muoki, Isaac Mulatya ODM - K Kitui South
68 Mureithi, Erastus Kihara PNU Ol' Kalou
69 Muriuki, Silas Ruteere MAZINGIRA North Imenti
70 Musyimi, Mutava PNU Gachoka
71 Muthama, Johnson Nduya ODM - K Kangundo
72 Muturi, Mwangi SISI Kiharu
73 Mwadeghu, T Ludindi ODM Wundanyi
74 Mwahima, Mashud Mwalimu ODM Likoni
75 Mwaita, Sammy Silas Komen ODM Baringo Central
76 Mwakulegwa, Danson Mwazo ODM Voi
77 Mwangi, Barnabas Muturi C SISI Kiharu
78 Mwatela, Calyst Andrew ODM Mwatate
79 Mwathi, Peter Mungai FORD - P Limuru
80 Mwau, John Harun PICK Kilome
81 Mwaura, David N. Kiburi PPK Lari
82 Namwamba, Ababu Tawfiq Pius ODM Budalangi
83 Nguyai, Lewis Nganga PNU Kabete
84 Nuh, Nassir Abdi ODM - K Bura
85 Nyammo, Francis Thombe PNU Tetu
86 Odhiambo, Bwire ODM Butula
87 Ogindo, Martin Otieno ODM Rangwe
88 Ojwang, Cyprian ODM Uriri
89 Ongoro, Elizabeth ODM Kasarani
90 Onyancha, Charles ODM Bonchari
91 Orengo, James Aggrey ODM Ugenya
92 Otieno, Dalmas ODM Rongo
93 Otuoma, Nyongesa Paul (Dr.) ODM Funyula
94 Outa, Frederick Otieno ODM Nyando
95 Pesa, John Dache ODM Migori
96 Rutto, Isaac ODM Chepalungu
97 Sambu, Alfred Wekesa ODM Webuye
98 Shabir, Shekeel Ahmed ODM Kisumi Town East
99 Swaleh, Swaleh KANU Lamu West
100 Thuo, George PNU Juja
101 Too, David ODM Ainamoi
102 Wamalwa, Eugene Ludovic PNU Saboti
103 Wambugu, Clement Muchiri PNU Mathioya
104 Wanjiru, Margaret (Bishop) ODM Starehe
105 Warugongo, Nemesyus PNU Kieni
106 Wathika, Dickson Mwangi PNU Makadara
107 Were, Melitus ODM Embakasi
108 Wiru, Alex Muthengi PNU Tharaka
109 Yinda, Edwin Ochieng ODM Alego Usonga
110 Zachariah, John Moguche CCU Kitutu Masaba
111 Angwenyi, Jimmy Nuru Ondieki PNU Kitutu Chache
112 Bett, Franklin Kipn'getich ODM Bureti
113 Ethuro, David Ethwee PNU Turkana Central
114 Githae, Njeru Robinson PNU Ndia
115 Gumo, Frederick ODM Westlands
116 Haji, Yusuf KANU Ijara
117 Kajwang', Otieno Gerald ODM Mbita
118 Kamama, Abongotum, Asman PNU Baringo East
119 Karua, Martha Wangari PNU Gichugu
120 Kenneth, Peter PNU Gatanga
121 Kenyatta, Uhuru Muigai KANU Gatundu South
122 Keter, Charles ODM Belgut
123 Khalwale, Bonny (Dr.) NEW FORD-K Ikolomani
124 Kibaki, Mwai Emilio PNU Othaya
125 Kiema, Kilonzo Julius ODM - K Mutito
126 Kilimo, Linah Jebii KENDA Marakwet East
127 Kilonzo, Charles Mutavi ODM - K Yatta
128 Kimunya, Amos Muhinga PNU Kipipiri
129 Kiunjuri, Mwangi Festus PNU Laikipia East
130 Kombe , Harrison Garama SHIRIKISHO Magarini
131 Kosgey, Henry Kiprono ODM Tinderet
132 Kuti, Mohammed Abdi (Dr.) KANU Isiolo North
133 Lekuton, Joseph KANU Laisamis
134 Lesirma, Simon Saimanga ODM Samburu West
135 Machage, Wilfred (Dr.) PNU Kuria
136 Magara, Omingo James ODM South Mugirango
137 Mbau, Elias Peter PNU Maragua
138 Michuki, John Njoroge PNU Kangema
139 Midiwo, Jakoyo Washington ODM Gem
140 Mugo, Beth Wambui PNU Dagoretti
141 Mungatana, Danson PNU Garsen
142 Musila, David ODM - K Mwingi South
143 Musyoka, Kalonzo Stephen ODM - K Mwingi North
144 Mwakwere, Ali Chirau PNU Matuga
145 Ndambuki, Gideon Musyoka ODM - K Kaiti
146 Ngilu, Charity Kaluki Mwendwa NARC Kitui Central
147 Nkaissery, Joseph ODM Kajiado Central
148 Nyong'o, Anyang' Peter (Prof.) ODM Kisumi Rural
149 Odinga, Oburu Ngona ODM Bondo
150 Odinga, Raila Amolo ODM Langata
151 Ojaamongson, Sospeter Odeke ODM Amagoro
152 Okemo, Chrisanthus ODM Nambale
153 Ole Ntimama, William Ronkorua ODM Narok North
154 Oparanya, Wycliffe ODM Butere
155 Phoghisio, Samuel Losuron ODM - K Kachileba
156 Ruto, William K Samoei ODM Eldoret North
157 Sasura, Abdi .T ODM - K Saku
158 Sasura, Hussein Tarrui ODM - K Saku
159 Shaban, Naomi Namsi KANU Taveta
160 Shitanda, Soita Peter NEW FORD-K Malava
161 Wakoli, Bifwoli Sylvester PNU Bumula
162 Wekesa, Noah (Dr.) PNU Kwanza
163 Wetangula, Moses Masika PNU Sirisia

163 Result(s) for elected members


From:Gordon Teti

Guys, this is how the outcome of the forthcoming general election will be:

ODM......118 SEATS
PNU....69 SEATS
ODM KENYA....11 SEATS
KANU....5 SEATS
SHIRIKISHO.. .3 SEATS
NEW FORDKENYA..2 SEATS
TIP....1 SEAT
SAFINA...1 SEAT


Nairobi Province
Nairobi:
* Dagoretti Constituency PNU
* Embakasi Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kamukunji Constituency ODMKENYA
* Kasarani Constituency ODM
* Langata Constituency ODM
* Makadara Constituency ODM
* Starehe Constituency ODM
* Westlands Constituency ODM

Central Province
Nyandarua District:

* Kinangop Constituency PNU
* Kipipiri Constituency PNU
* Ndaragwa Constituency PNU
* Ol Kalou Constituency PNU

Nyeri District:
* Kieni Constituency PNU
* Mathira Constituency PNU
* Mukurweni Constituency PNU
* Nyeri Town Constituency PNU
* Othaya Constituency PNU
* Tetu Constituency PNU

Kirunyaga District:
* Gichugu Constituency PNU
* Kerugoya/Kutus Constituency PNU
* Ndia Constituency PNU
* Mwea Constituency PNU

Maragua District:
* Kandara Constituency PNU
* Kigumo Constituency PNU
* Maragua Constituency PNU

Muranga District:
* Kangema Constituency PNU
* Kiharu Constituency PNU
* Mathioya Constituency PNU

Thika District:
* Gatanga Constituency PNU
* Gatundu South Constituency PNU
* Gatundu North Constituency KANU
* Juja Constituency PNU

Kiambu District:
* Githunguri Constituency PNU
* Kiambaa Constituency PNU
* Kabete Constituency SAFINA
* Limuru Constituency PNU
* Lari Constituency PNU

Coast Province
Kilifi District:
* Bahari Constituency ODM
* Ganze Constituency ODM
* Kaloleni Constituency ODM

Kwale District:
* Kinango Constituency SHIRIKISHO
* Matuga Constituency SHIRIKISHO
* Msambweni Constituency ODM

Lamu District:
* Lamu East Constituency ODM
* Lamu West Constituency ODM

Malindi District:
* Magarini Constituency SHIRIKISHO
* Malindi Constituency ODM KENYA

Mombasa District:
* Changamwe Constituency ODM
* Kisauni Constituency ODM
* Likoni Constituency ODM
* Mvita Constituency ODM

Taita-Taveta District:
* Mwatate Constituency ODM
* Taveta Constituency ODM
* Voi Constituency ODM
* Wundanyi Constituency ODM

Tana River District:
* Bura Constituency ODM
* Galole Constituency ODM
* Garsen Constituency PNU

Eastern Province
Embu District:
* Manyatta Constituency PNU
* Runyenjes Constituency PNU

Isiolo District:
* Isiolo North Constituency ODM
* Isiolo South Constituency ODM

Kitui District:
* Kitui Central Constituency ODM
* Kitui South Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kitui West Constituency ODM KENYA
* Mutito Constituency ODM KENYA

Makueni District:
* Kaiti Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kibwezi Constituency TIP
* Kilome Constituency ODM KENYA
* Makueni Constituency PNU
* Mbooni Constituency PNU

Marsabit District:
* Laisamis Constituency ODM
* North Horr Constituency ODM
* Saku Constituency ODM

Mbeere District:
* Gachoka Constituency ODM
* Siakago Constituency PNU

Meru District:
* Central Imenti Constituency PNU
* North Imenti Constituency PNU
* South Imenti Constituency PNU

Meru North District:
* Igembe Constituency PNU
* Ntonyiri Constituency PNU
* Tigania East Constituency PNU
* Tigania West Constituency PNU

Meru South District:
* Nithi Constituency PNU

Moyale District:
* Moyale Constituency ODM

Mwingi District:
* Mwingi North Constituency ODM KENYA
* Mwingi South Constituency ODM KENYA

Tharaka District:
* Tharaka Constituency PNU

North Eastern Province
Garissa District:

* Dujis Constituency ODM
* Fafi Constituency ODM
* Lagdera Constituency ODM

Ijara District:
* Ijara Constituency KANU

Wajir District:
* Wajir East Constituency ODM
* Wajir North Constituency ODM
* Wajir South Constituency ODM
* Wajir West Constituency ODM

Mandera District:
* Mandera Central Constituency ODM
* Mandera East ConstituencyODM
* Mandera West ConstituencyODM

Nyanza Province
Bondo District:
* Bondo Constituency ODM
* Rarieda Constituency ODM

Gucha District:
* Bobasi Constituency ODM
* Bomachoge Constituency ODM
* South Mugirango Constituency ODM

Homa Bay District:
* Ndhiwa Constituency ODM
* Rangwe Constituency ODM

Kisii District:
* Bonchari Constituency ODM
* Kitutu Chache Constituency ODM
* Nyaribare Chache Constituency PNU
* Nyaribari Masaba Constituency PNU

Kisumu District:
* Kisumu Rural Constituency ODM
* Kisumu Town East Constituency ODM
* Kisumu Town West Constituency ODM

Kuria District:
* Kuria Constituency ODM

Migori District:
* Migori Constituency ODM
* Nyatike Constituency ODM
* Rongo Constituency ODM
* Uriri Constituency ODM

Nyamira District:
* Kitutu Masaba Constituency PNU
* North Mugirango Constituency ODM
* West Mugirango Constituency ODM

Nyando District:
* Muhoroni Constituency ODM
* Nyakach Constituency ODM
* Nyando Constituency ODM

Rachuonyo District
* Karachuonyo Constituency ODM
* Kasipul Kabondodo Constituency ODM

Siaya District:
* Alego Usonga Constituency ODM
* Gem Constituency ODM
* Ugenya Constituency ODM

Suba District:
* Gwassi Constituency ODM
* Mbita Constituency ODM

Rift Valley Province
Baringo District:

* Baringo Central Constituency KANU
* Baringo East Constituency ODM
* Baringo North Constituency ODM

Bomet District:
* Bomet Constituency ODM
* Chepalungu Constituency ODM
* Sotik Constituency ODM

Buret District:
* Bureti Constituency ODM
* Konoin Constituency ODM

Kajiado District:
* Kajiado Central Constituency ODM
* Kajiado North Constituency PNU
* Kajiado South ConstituencyPNU

Keiyo District:
* Keiyo North Constituency ODM
* Keiyo South Constituency KANU

Kericho District:
* Ainamoi Constituency ODM
* Belgut Constituency ODM
* Kipkelion Constituency ODM

Koibatek District:
* Eldama Ravine Constituency ODM
* Mogotio Constituency ODM

Laikipia District
* Laikipia East Constituency PNU
* Laikipia West Constituency PNU

Marakwet District:
* Marakwet East Constituency ODM
* Marakwet West Constituency ODM

Nakuru District:
* Kuresoi Constituency ODM
* Molo Constituency PNU
* Naivasha Constituency PNU
* Nakuru Town Constituency PNU
* Rongai Constituency PNU
* Subukia Constituency PNU

Nandi District:
* Aldai Constituency ODM
* Emgwen Constituency ODM
* Mosop Constituency ODM
* Tinderet Constituency ODM

Narok District
* Narok North Constituency ODM
* Narok South Constituency ODM

Samburu District
* Samburu East Constituency ODM
* Samburu West Constituency ODM

Trans Mara District
* Kilgoris Constituency ODM

Trans-Nzoia District
* Cherangani Constituency PNU
* Kwanza Constituency PNU
* Saboti Constituency PNU

Turkana District:
* Turkana Central Constituency PNU
* Turkana North Constituency KANU
* Turkana South Constituency ODM

Uasin Gishu District:
* Eldoret East Constituency ODM
* Eldoret North Constituency ODM
* Eldoret South ConstituencyODM

West Pokot District
* Kacheliba Constituency ODM KENYA
* Kapenguria Constituency ODM
* Sigor Constituency ODM

Western Province
Bungoma District:
* Bumula Constituency PNU
* Kanduyi Constituency PNU
* Kimilili Constituency NEW FORDKENYA
* Sirisia Constituency ODM
* Webuye Constituency PNU

Busia District:
* Budalangi Constituency PNU or ODM
* Butula Constituency ODM
* Funyula Constituency ODM
* Nambale Constituency ODM

Butere/Mumias District
* Butere Constituency ODM
* Khwisero Constituency ODM
* Matungu ConstituencyODM
* Mumias Constituency ODM

Kakamega District:
* Malava Constituency ODM
* Lurambi Constituency PNU
* Shinyalu Constituency ODM
* Ikolomani Constituency NEW FORDKENYA

Lugari District:
* Lugari Constituency ODM

Mount Elgon District:
* Mt Elgon Constituency ODM

Teso District
* Amagoro Constituency ODM
* Emuhaya Constituency ODM
* Hamisi Constituency ODM
* Sabatia ConstituencyODM
* Vihiga Constituency ODM

Source: http://www.jaluo.com/wangwach/200710/Gordon_Teti101607.html

Topic: Bunge-only projections: Tight ODM win or Coalition (Read 158 times)
mimimzalendo
Full Member

member is offline

Karma: -1 Bunge-only projections: Tight ODM win or Coalition
« Thread Started on Nov 20, 2007, 7:34pm »

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bunge Projection: Tight ODM win OR Coalition with Kalonzo/Muite/Others:
==============================================

I spent most of yesterday evening and early morning cross checking the "preliminary nominations data" we have:

A few observations:
-----------------------
1) ODM the party has stood the most candidates (195+), is the most popular, and hence the raw passions for the certificates.
2) PNU the party has stood the 2nd most candidates (110+) and is the 2nd most popular, hence too the raw passions for the certificates.
3) ODM seems to have covered all geographical areas ... NEP, Coast, NBO, Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Eastern BUT NOT Central that much.
4) PNU covered a few areas very well like Central, Eastern, NBO, Rift Valley and Coast Province and low coverage in Western, Nyanza and NEP.
5) PNU has been dealt a serious unity-blow by affiliate parties like Safina, DP, Narc-K, TIP. Ford-P, Shirikisho, etc
6) In terms of available seats - NorthEastProv-11, Nairobi-8, RiftValley-49, Central-29, Nyanza-32, Eastern-35, Western-25, Coast-21
7) Bunge seats are 230 seats of which 210 are elective and 20 are nominated MP's. For majority in Bunge, one needs 210/2=105+1 which is 106.


On my projections sheet I have the following (as a conservative-estimate):
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nairobi - ODM (3), PNU (3), DP (1), Safina (1)
Coast - ODM (14), ODM-K (2), PNU (3), Shirikisho (2)
NEP - ODM (7), ODMK (1), PNU (1), KANU (2)
Eastern - ODM-K (17), PNU (12), ODM (5-north upper), NARC (1)
Central - PNU (19), KANU (5), Safina (3), DP (2)
Rift Valley - ODM (34), KANU (6), PNU (6), ODMK (2) New KANU (1),
Western - ODM (20), PNU (4), NewFordK(1)
Nyanza - ODM (24), FordP (8)

With the above, the Bunge projections comes to:
--------------------------------------------------------
ODM - 3+14+7+5+33+20+24 = 107
PNU - 3+3+1+12+19+6+4 =48
ODMK - 2+1+17+2 =22
KANU - 2+5+6 = 13
FordP -=8
Safina- 1+3=4
DP - 1+2=3
Shirkisho-= 2
NewKanu- =1
NewFordK-=1
NARC-=1


Which means the following:
--------------------------------
a) If Raira wins, ODM has coalition Govt with Narc, ODMK, Ford-P have absolute parliamentary majorioty ... and may entice Safina, DP, etc
b) If Kibaki wins, PNU has minority Coalition Govt with other parties OR ... get this ... PNU coalition with ODM with absolute Parliamentary Majority
c) If PNU does not win the seats as projected, expect to see SMALL parties, ODM-Kalonzo and Safina-Muite reap handsomely from the next govt.
d) This election has seen the SAD DEATH of Ford-People, Ford-Kenya, Shirikisho, KANU and Narc-Kenya as powerful parliamentary parties.

Unless a blunder of monumental proportions occurs between now and election date (37 days), ODM may be the strongest/largest party.

Please note that this is a conservative and preliminary estimate and will obviously change once we have the finalized data published by ECK.

MM
Source: http://jukwaa.proboards58.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1195576469