Monday, January 26, 2009
Is Kibaki’s succession plan viable?
By Mutahi Ngunyi
Today I will beg leave from reason and push a conspiracy theory. I call it a conspiracy because I read a pattern in President Kibaki’s actions. A pattern that suggests a possible manipulation of the 2012 election.
But before I make my argument, allow me to mention Mr Raila Odinga in passing. To repeat myself, I believe Mr Odinga has been set up for failure by the President.
I say so because the Prime Minister can organise people ‘‘against’’ an idea. However, he is weak at organising people in ‘‘support’’ of an idea. This imbalance makes him look like a ‘‘deconstructionist’’.
With the cameras on him consistently, he is bound to reveal his true nature. He actually did so this week. He told reporters to focus on the ‘‘goodies’’ he brought from India instead of asking ‘‘useless’’ questions about the maize and oil scandals.
This comment was ill-conceived and in bad taste. And this is why whenever Mr Odinga gets an opportunity to shut up, he must grab it with dear life. This way, he will have enough time to study President Kibaki’s silent schemes.
Now I must plead temporary insanity and advance my conspiracy theory. For starters, the 2012 election will be rigged. And I say so because nothing has changed.
The players are the same and their motives are intact. In other words, an orange tree cannot bear oranges one year, and bananas the following year.
If nothing has changed, we should not expect them to rig in 2007 and be of good behaviour in 2012. And although both principals are guilty of manipulation in 2007, the man to rig the election in 2012 is the President. Consider my hypotheses.
One, President Kibaki has motive. In fact, his motive is two-fold. During the Moi era, he led the GEMA community for 27 years. They languished in the cold, and their businesses had to fold. Now that they are back, they will protect their turf.
The Kibaki motive, therefore, is to craft a succession that will protect GEMA – at least at face value. And this brings me to his second and real motive. His interest is not GEMA; it is the protection of property.
In fact when Mr Uhuru Kenyatta was appointed Finance Minister, I exclaimed aloud “…what a joke!” But when I cooled down, it dawned on me that his appointment had only one purpose. The man will not create new wealth; he is there to protect old wealth. Period!
My second hypothesis regards the Kibaki choices and actors. If his motive is to protect wealth, who will execute the brief? Which crony will succeed him? Is it Mr Kenyatta? My submission is that the propertied are shameless.
If Mr Kenyatta is the man to protect their turf, they will install him and swear him in at night if they have to.
However, I doubt that he is their choice. More so because Mr Kenyatta himself told us that: “… some people claim that I am in the Waki List”.
If he is indeed on this list, he will have to climb down from his new high. He will have to resign pending investigations as required by the Waki process. What about Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, the Vice-President?
This man is not wealthy; he is just rich. Riches can be squandered in one generation, but wealth takes generations to exhaust.
And because Mr Musyoka does not understand wealth, he cannot be on the Kibaki short list. The same applies to M/s Martha Karua. She is just a peasant from Gichugu; not sufficiently pedigree.
Although she has promise, they view her as nothing but a clever ‘‘chatterbox’’. This leaves us with only one man – Prof George Saitoti. He is Kikuyu and not Kikuyu.